3 November 20226 minute read

Africa Energy Futures: Tanzania

Over the last five years, how has the energy mix changed, and what have been the key drivers?

The Tanzania national energy policy was put in place originally in 1992 as a result of social economic reforms which took place in the 1990s. The policy was later updated in 2015. It has proposed a fair share of renewable energy diversification for Tanzania, by emphasizing the energy mix between hydro, solar, biomass, wind and geothermal energy sources. The upscaling of renewable energy has been adopted by the market, which already had an appetite for using affordable and sustainable alternative energy.

While touching on matters related to energy, it’s important to point out the United Republic of Tanzania is a union between Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar Island. Zanzibar is semi-autonomous region of Tanzania, with its own energy policy separate from the Tanzania national energy policy, as set out since 2015.

The Zanzibar Energy Policy 2009 aspirations for the energy mix with renewable energy was narrow, with the focus being on strengthening sustainable energy security, reliability and power access for Zanzibar using renewable energy sources. The Zanzibar policy is now under review with the aim of harnessing the rich renewable energy resources surrounding the island, creating a better energy mix from various sources such as waves, wind and solar.

What is the outlook for the energy and natural resources sector in the next five years? In particular:

Key policy decisions

Tanzania is currently implementing the National Rural Electrification Program (2013-2022), which intends to increase the overall power access of the population from 36% in 2014 to 50% by 2025 and to at least 75% by 2033. The program is committed to ensure the electrification of rural areas through off-grid sources as well as the development of distributed technologies, in particular off-grid solar and other renewable technologies.

Main policy challenges

We’re seeing an increase in the market entry for entities that intend to undertake renewable energy generation. The Ministry for Energy is implementing a scaling up renewable energy program as an initiative to promote mini-grids and renewable energy generation. However, there are no tradable green certificates issued by the Ministry of Energy.

With the accession of President Samia Suluhu and the current administration, it is expected that there will be massive development in the energy sector. We’ve witnessed the revival of a USD30 billion LNG project. The current administration intends to diversify the energy mix.

Electricity is provided by the central grid, which is owned by TANESCO (Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited), the state utility. TANESCO is the primary source for electricity generation, distribution and transmission in Tanzania, with a current generation capacity of 1,500 MW. The legal framework is set out in the Electricity Rules (Generation, Transmission and Distribution Activities) 2019 and the Electricity Rules (Development of Small Power Projects) 2020. The expansion of renewable energy to the transmission and distribution grid in tandem with its generation remains a challenge. The monopoly of the utility company affects efficiency, and unbundling may bring the much-needed efficiency and profitability.

The Tanzania Power System Master Plan 2016, with detailed assumptions around demand growth and various supply options, suggests that Tanzania's goals will be primarily met by coal and gas. However, recent advances in renewable energy for power generation, transmission and storage suggests that the plan needs to be revised. Although the policy intends to promote renewable energy, implementation remains divided based on governmental and sector-specific priorities.

The anticipated role that renewables and/or new technologies will play

The current administration has projected a generation of 6,000 MW by 2025. Although the government’s focus is on the construction of a 2,100 MW hydropower generation facility using the Rufiji Hydro Power Dam, there are other renewable energy projects such as the Ruhudji and Rumakali hydro power projects, which are expected to produce 358 MW and 222 MW respectively on completion. The government projects a generation of 700 MW from solar projects. Solar power remains the preferred energy source until the Rufiji Hydro Power Dam is commissioned.

Tanzania – like other developing countries in Africa – is striving to adopt various ways of ensuring that energy supply is accessible and affordable. Considering the social, environmental, and economic benefits of off-grid renewable energy vis a vis costly grid infrastructure, renewable energy will undoubtedly remain a dependable energy source for Tanzania in the near future.

What are the key investment opportunities in the energy and natural resources sectors over the next five to ten years?

Demand is projected to increase sharply to 4,700 MW by 2025 due to the development of industrial activities. Generation of electricity through renewable sources is slowly integrating with commercial electricity production. However, as renewable energy currently only provides electricity to mini-grids, wide-scale utilization has not been achieved.

Small Power Producers (SPP) account for 2% of total capacity. These are independent producers with a capacity of up to 10 MW that may sell electricity wholesale to TANESCO or to retail consumers. Key investment opportunities are also identified around providing power to large consumers such as universities and hospitals, apart from industry.

With particular focus on sustainability, and on reducing carbon emissions, how will the energy and natural resources landscape change over the next five to ten years?

President Samia Suluhu addressed the United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), in Glasgow, Scotland, and confirmed Tanzania’s continued commitment to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Among other resolutions agreed at COP26 was the continued move away from fossil fuel, completing the agreed pact in Paris COP21, which included the use of carbon markets.

The regulatory authorities, through the objectives of the energy policy, are focusing on reducing and eliminating charcoal consumption in urban and rural areas. On the ground the authorities are keen to create awareness around the substitution of charcoal and wood in rural areas. Energy knowledge management and the promotion of the use of modern energy are key drivers in changing consumption of energy and natural resources. Over the past year we have seen an increase in the number of local banks that have partnered with international parastatals for financing of green climate projects.

In the course of 2021/22, we have seen entries in the carbon markets. The government has set up a designated body to regulate carbon credits projects: the National Carbon Monitoring Center within the Ministry for Environment under the Vice President’s Office. So far the Carbon Trading Guide is the only official documented guide for carbon trading in Tanzania. The Carbon Trading Guide is in line with the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Tanzania is expected to actively participate in COP27, which is set to be held in Egypt.

DLA Piper Africa is a Swiss verein whose members are comprised of independent law firms in Africa working with DLA Piper.

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