Government Shutdown Update: Thursday, October 2, 2025

No votes were held today, October 2, as it is Yom Kippur and both chambers are out of session, but the Senate is expected to vote on a continuing resolution (CR) again tomorrow, October 3. Majority Leader Thune has said that weekend votes are “unlikely,” and GAPP intelligence from a congressional staffer suggests that no movement is likely until early next week, the week of October 6.

With Congress out of session today, all eyes were on the Administration.

What is the Administration doing?

Despite the shutdown, President Trump has continued business as usual, declaring that the U.S. is now in a war with the cartels. The President sent a memo to Congress, stating that the drug cartels operating in the Caribbean are unlawful combatants and that the U.S. is now in a “non-international armed conflict” with the cartels. President Trump and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought were scheduled to meet today; however, at this time of this drafting, there is no indication as to whether or not that meeting actually occurred. Next Wednesday, October 8, OMB Director Vought is scheduled to speak at a gathering of House Republicans.

Yesterday, October 1, President Trump vowed to fire staff in “Democrat agencies;” and, today, he focused on small independent agencies. The Administration defunded the Council of Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency and fired a large number of people advising the National Endowment for the Humanities.

The White House Council of Economic Advisors released a report estimating that the shutdown could result in the U.S. losing $15 billion in GDP each week. These estimates are based on several reports from 2023, including ones by the Federal Reserve and Goldman Sachs, which found that government shutdowns reduce annualized quarterly GDP by approximately 0.2%. A 2025 report from Morgan Stanley estimates that each week of a shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1% but noted that the economic drag usually reverses once the shutdown is over. They added that the Trump Administration’s plan to use the shutdown to make permanent job cuts could have a more serious impact. Since a government shutdown delays the collection of key economic data on employment and inflation, market uncertainty may affect Federal Reserve interest rate changes and businesses’ decision-making.

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the looming federal layoffs will likely be in the thousands, and Russell Vought told House Republicans on a private call yesterday that mass firings will begin “in a day or two.”

What new Congressional developments are happening?

According to reports, there have been bipartisan discussions supporting the use of reconciliation money to pay troops during the shutdown, as today marks the first day they are working without pay. Members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, including Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Tim Kaine (D-VA), and Rick Scott (R-FL), have all expressed support for this proposal. The Department of War has discretion over how to spend the money provided under the reconciliation law, but it may face backlash if it strays from congressional intent. On September 16, Representative Jen Kiggans (R-VA), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, introduced the Pay Our Troops Act of 2026 (H.R. 5401), which would ensure the military is paid during a shutdown, but the House has not taken it up.

Previous reports indicated that the shutdown may end before October 15 to ensure the military receives their paychecks on time. If this proposal is adopted, however, the military will be paid and that leverage will be removed. If this leverage is removed, it will no longer act as an incentive for reaching a resolution.

What do the changes in workforce mean for both parties?

In an interview yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Thune made it clear that he cannot control the actions of the OMB and Director Russell Vought. Thune said the Democrats should have expected the OMB to pursue mass layoffs, and “This is the risk of shutting down the government and handing the keys to Russ Vought.” Other GOP Senators and Representatives have expressed concerns about the negative effects of potential federal layoffs and are attempting to distance themselves from the actions of the OMB. Yesterday, Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) said he is “not nuts for it” in reference to the lay-offs, and that there are “political ramifications that could cause backlash.”

So far, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has been the only agency to issue reductions in force (RIFs), laying off 140 workers.

What narratives are circulating?

The U.S. is at a unique political point, and this shutdown is equally unique. Both parties have large incentives to put on a show for their constituents, especially the Democrats. Since the 2024 election, Democrats have not had a significant political win. Right now, their stated goal is to permanently extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. However, this is equally about trying to slow down the Trump Administration's momentum and frustrate the Administration’s goals.

While Democratic leadership is intent on proving that they will not stand down, the White House is asserting maximum pressure. Democrats want to maintain a united front in opposition to the Republican-backed House CR, but they must balance that with private negotiations across the aisle to put an end to the shutdown, which is harming their constituents. Republicans, on the other hand, continue to emphasize that Democrats want to provide Medicaid coverage to illegal immigrants, while Democrats assert that is not the case.

It’s important to remember that dramatic public shows are often just that; they are not necessarily the key to reaching a resolution. Historically, the party that votes against a CR initiating a shutdown rarely gets the outcome they want, and it is unlikely this shutdown will be an exception.

Both parties continue to blame each other for the shutdown and are firm in their stance that they are working in the best interest of their constituents. Republican members and the Administration are calling this event the “Schumer Shutdown.” Below are talking points from the parties’ leadership:

Senate Majority John Thune:

• “So far three of my Democrat colleagues have joined Republicans to attempt to reopen the government. If we can get just a few more Democrats to join us, we can end this shutdown and get back to bipartisan appropriations work and the business of the American people.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson:

• “This isn’t a Republican talking point, or political spin…it’s what Democrats put IN WRITING: On page 57, section 2141, of their OWN bill, Democrats restore taxpayer-funded benefits for illegal immigrants.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer:

• "IT’S MIDNIGHT. That means the Republican shutdown has just begun because they wouldn’t protect Americans’ health care. We’re going to keep fighting for the American people."

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries:

• "Shame on them for being on vacation all across the country and across the world on the eve of a government shutdown," he said. "They're on vacation because they'd rather shut the government down than protect the health care of the American people. That's unfathomable, that's unacceptable, that's unconscionable, and that's un-American. Do your job."

If you have any questions or would like to coordinate an individual conversation about the shutdown’s effects or about the Government Affairs & Public Policy practice, please contact practice Chair Karina Lynch at karina.lynch@us.dlapiper.com.