US–Australia critical minerals: Investment and growth prospects

On October 20, 2025, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a United States–Australia policy framework (the Framework) to secure and diversify critical minerals and rare earths supply chains spanning mining, separation, and processing.

The Framework signals coordinated public–private investment, with both governments taking measures within six months of its announcement to provide at least USD1 billion in financing to projects located in the US and Australia that deliver end product to buyers in both countries. It also contemplates accelerated and streamlined permitting, a ministerial-level investment meeting within 180 days of the Framework’s announcement, and a joint process to identify priority projects that address supply chain gaps.

Although these initiatives will likely be welcomed by industry participants, of particular interest to Australian critical minerals companies will be the contemplated use of guarantees, loans, equity, insurance, finalization of offtake arrangements to support capital and operational expenditures, and the adoption of pricing frameworks – including price floors or similar mechanisms – by US and Australian government agencies to de-risk projects and support market development for critical minerals and rare earths.

Commercial opportunities for rare earths and critical minerals companies

If the US government, including agencies such as the Export-Import Bank of the United States and other relevant financing and procurement authorities, were to make equity investments in or enter into offtake arrangements with Australian rare earths and critical minerals companies or establish a pricing framework – including price floors or similar measures – this would mark a significant shift in the commercial arrangements traditionally employed by such agencies, which have historically focused on long-term, low-cost debt and credit support.

While recent US government support has largely focused on US domestic rare earths and critical minerals projects, the Framework expressly contemplates financing and other forms of commercial support for projects located in Australia (provided they generate end products for delivery to buyers in the US and Australia), thereby opening a pathway for cross-border project finance, credit enhancement, and demand anchoring.

The recently announced partnership between the US Department of Defense and MP Materials Corp. (MP Materials) provides Australian rare earths and critical minerals companies with an example of the capital tools the US government may potentially deploy under the Framework in support of eligible projects in Australia.

This partnership contemplates, among other commercial arrangements, the purchase of USD400 million of MP Materials’ preferred stock by the Department of Defense, a 10-year agreement establishing a price floor commitment for MP Materials’ Neodymium-Praseodymium products, and a USD150 million loan from the Office of Strategic Capital to MP Materials in connection with its plan to expand its rare earth separation capabilities at Mountain Pass, California.

In addition to financing and other capital tools, the Framework envisages measures that can materially improve bankability and execution certainty. These include accelerated and streamlined permitting in each country; joint project identification to address priority supply chain gaps; and ministerial engagement to promote investment in mining, minerals, and metals.

Both governments will also work to protect domestic markets from non‑market practices by developing standards-based trading systems and pricing frameworks, providing revenue predictability for qualifying projects. Complementary initiatives – such as the establishment of a US-Australia Critical Minerals Supply Security Response Group, a bilateral rapid response group to identify supply vulnerabilities, cooperation on geological mapping, investment in recycling technologies, and strengthened screening of asset sales on national security grounds – underscore the breadth of policy support under the Framework.

Conclusion

The Framework points to near‑term avenues for project financing and commercial de‑risking that are directly relevant to Australian companies across mining, processing, and refining of critical minerals and rare earths.

References in the Framework to offtake finalization and price‑support mechanisms and standards‑based trading systems are aimed at underpinning revenue certainty for critical minerals and rare earths companies.

Meanwhile, under the Framework, US government agencies may participate directly through equity investments or provide debt financing and guarantees to eligible Australian projects that supply US and Australian buyers, including on concessional terms consistent with programmatic requirements.

As both governments implement the Framework and move to deploy at least USD1 billion of financing within six months, Australian companies are encouraged to consider how project profiles, offtake strategies, and permitting pathways align with the Framework’s joint project‑selection and market‑stabilization objectives.

For more information

Our team of attorneys is available to speak in greater detail about these potential commercial opportunities and how best to engage with US and Australian government agencies. For more information, please contact the authors, Alex Jones, or Owen Alcorn.